Previsione della comunità attuale
No 79.4%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto2 lug 26, 17:36 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will someone manipulate a fire market?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExRegole
A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.
- Things that would count: geoengineering, earthworks, reforestation
- An entity must manipulate the weather itself.
- The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.
- Manipulating a weather measurement device with false measurements does not count.
- However, manipulating a measurement device with real weather changes does count.
