Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2040 36.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto9 mar 25, 18:23 UTC1 gen 00, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Regole
This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).
- Current accuracy levels for reference:
- 7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate
- 10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate
- https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/
- https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
