Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto8 set 24, 01:51 UTC1 gen 27, 16:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
KalshiTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegole
Elon Musk has stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2026:
- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833?t=vksvLiovvh5ZD-XvdX5V0w&s=19
- Market resolves YES if successful crewed or uncrewed launches happen before 1 January 2027 and NO otherwise
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027??
- Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Elon Musk has stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2026: