Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 03:24 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 98.8%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto8 set 24, 01:51 UTC1 gen 27, 16:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRegole
Elon Musk has stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2026:
- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833?t=vksvLiovvh5ZD-XvdX5V0w&s=19
- Market resolves YES if successful crewed or uncrewed launches happen before 1 January 2027 and NO otherwise