Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
TecnologiaOne-OffSpace2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 98%
Previsori
35
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto8 set 24, 18:55 UTC1 mar 29, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWill the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
resolve YES if a crewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2028
- @/strutheo/will-the-first-uncrewed-starship-to
- @/strutheo/will-the-first-selfsustaining-base
Mercati aperti
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says??
- Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 marzo 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: resolve YES if a crewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2028