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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 11:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Starship 55%
Starship 55%Previsori
51
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto23 set 24, 14:14 UTC2 gen 35, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a plan to connect Liverpool to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada have high-speed rail by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam approve the construction of a Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City high-speed rail project before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
