Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 98.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto7 set 24, 23:13 UTC2 lug 27, 06:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
- These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars.
- If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
- Will the first part of this tweet happen?
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves Yes if at least one Starship is plausibly sent to Mars (does not require a landing attempt).
