Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute
One-OffIATecnologiaScienza14aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 95.4%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
12 lug 26, 18:40 UTC31 dic 40, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first AI-driven computation (inference run) that successfully solves one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is publicly documented or estimated to have cost over $1,000,000 USD in compute resource for inference.
- It resolves to NO if the first successful AI solver's run costs $1,000,000 USD or less, or if the first verified solution is found by a human without the direct output of an AI inference system.
- Definitions and Details:
- Millennium Prize Problems: The six remaining unsolved problems designated by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI):
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute?
- Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria