Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 56.7%
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90
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto4 ott 24, 23:38 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.
- To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task.
- The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.
Mercati aperti
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- 9,1 Mln €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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- 325K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.