FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 31 ott 2026, 22:16 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%In testa tra 5 esiti
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%Qualità del mercato
25 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,2K €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
14
Commenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 minuti fa
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiHighest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsARC-AGI-3 Kaggle competition: what will the #1 public leaderboard score be at the final deadline (Nov 2, 2026)?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This event predicts the highest verified score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (Semi-Private Evaluation Set) by any AI system, as reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard, at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive percentage range of the maximum score; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".
- The Primary Designated Source is the ARC Prize official leaderboard (arcprize.org/leaderboard), specifically the highest verified ARC-AGI-2 semi-private-set score listed at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Only scores that ARC Prize publicly verifies (i.e., submitted, evaluated, and listed on the leaderboard) count.
- Self-reported, unverified, or test-set results that have not been validated by the ARC Prize do not count.
- Markets whose ranges have been exceeded by a qualifying score may resolve "No" before the deadline.