Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99%
Previsori
34
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mar 26, 05:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.
- It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
- Scoring is based on the official leaderboard.
- As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
