Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99%
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34
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mar 26, 05:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegole
Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.
- It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
- Scoring is based on the official leaderboard.
- As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026??
- Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.