Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 64.2%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto31 ott 23, 17:23 UTC1 gen 27, 05:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)
Manifold MarketsPeer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Fields medalist Terence Tao has recently been interested in the Lean proof assistant.
- He recently started formalizing one of his papers in Lean.
- This question is to forecast whether he will still be interested in Lean in a few years.
- It resolves YES if Tao publishes or preprints any paper with Lean source code in the text of the paper between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year??
- Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Fields medalist Terence Tao has recently been interested in the Lean proof assistant.