Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.7%
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29
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto20 set 26, 11:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsScott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegole
Scott Alexander has challenged Steven Pinker to a debate on AI safety.
- Will such a debate take place in 2026?
- Must be a debate that takes place in real time, either in person or online by video or audio.
- If online it need not stream live to count.
