Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 61.2%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto28 apr 26, 17:02 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsScott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The post has to be specifically about the cluster of people who are mostly researching LLM preferences/behaviors in an unconventional way (advocating for the preservation of access to older models, evaluating their well-being, running act i-like discords and similar) Examples of people in this cluster: janus, anthrupad, aitechnopagan, tessera_antra
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 61% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year??
- Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The post has to be specifically about the cluster of people who are mostly researching LLM preferences/behaviors in an unconventional way (advocating for the preservation of access to older models, evaluating their well-being, running act i-like discords and similar) Examples of people in this cluster: janus, anthrupad, aitechnopagan, tessera_antra