Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 59%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto16 mag 24, 00:47 UTC1 gen 32, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Strong AGI as defined by the official Manifold market: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- If he steps down as CEO but remains on the board or another role, this question will remain open.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 59% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization??
- Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Strong AGI as defined by the official Manifold market: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708