Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 89.4%
Previsori
132
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mar 24, 16:07 UTC1 gen 41, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
To determine if AGI is achieved we will use a combination of other markets / mainstream news / Manifold poll if need be
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2041.
- Come viene liquidato Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: To determine if AGI is achieved we will use a combination of other markets / mainstream news / Manifold poll if need be