Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.4%
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41
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto12 ago 23, 10:19 UTC1 gen 27, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.