Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 67.5%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto25 gen 26, 21:53 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Russia capture Lyman by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over Lyman, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution sources
- Confirmation from: (at least 3 of these) Suriyakmaps, Kalibrated, Military Summary, DPA, AMK
- Official statements from Ukrainian/Russian military command
- Map shaded red on ISW map
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+0.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.5pt66%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 558,1K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 altri esiti
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 68% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026??
- Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria
- Dove altro è quotato Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.