Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 68.5%
Previsori
148
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 dic 22, 00:30 UTC22 feb 22, 21:22 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
- Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 69% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? dovrebbe risolversi il 22 febbraio 2222.
- Come viene liquidato Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first