Previsione della comunità attuale
No 58%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto25 feb 23, 21:55 UTC1 gen 30, 21:54 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Nayib Bukele be in prison, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Will Nayib Bukele's, President of El Salvador, Anti-Gang strategy been seen as a positive model (in reducing homicide and crime rate) in 2030?
- Background: (Feb 2023) Nayib Bukele has initiated aggressive policies punishing gang members.
- The homicide rate has drastically fallen in his first years of tenure, with 50% and 58% reduction year over year.
- At the same time, his tenure has been criticised as an example of democratic backsliding by the US government, and been reported to have made deals with the largest gang in El Salvador (MS13).
- Resolution: This resolves subjectively to my own judgment, but I would ideally love to defer to experts who seem level headed and reliable.
- Some reasons I could imagine this resolving positive:
