Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Criminalità e giustiziaOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97.8%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo15 gen 23, 19:50 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
