Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
GeopoliticaOne-OffCriminalità e giustiziaMedio OrienteSocietà e cultura2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 16:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 97.5%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto27 mar 26, 13:11 UTC31 dic 26, 14:09 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Laura Loomer join the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiWill there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsA major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsRegole
Laura Loomer recently claimed that a “massive Islamic terror attack” could take place in the US and suggested it could be “10 times worse than 9/11”
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a terrorist attack occurs in the United States that results in more than 29,770 deaths (10 times the 9/11 death toll of 2,977 people).
- The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government casualty counts from federal agencies (FBI, DHS, or NIST) or major news organizations reporting confirmed death tolls.
- This market will resolve as YES even if Islam is revealed to have not actually been involved, but is blamed.
