Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Medio OrienteGeopoliticaOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.5%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto15 giu 25, 01:06 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
PolymarketWill Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsWill the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
KalshiRegole
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).