Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78.7% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered??

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered? dovrebbe risolversi il 20 marzo 2030.

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Sì 78.7%

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binary

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Aggiornato 1 ora fa

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13 mar 24, 13:20 UTC20 mar 30, 15:59 UTC

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Resolves YES or NO when a Chinese government body disseminates information that makes this question clear.

We should not assume that this information will come any particular time, and it might be the case that it becomes an open secret, but resolution should still wait for official confirmation.
Would resolve NA if it became clear there will be no next aircraft carrier
Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will not bet on this market
If China is simultaneously working on both nuclear and non-nuclear carriers, the market resolves based on whichever carrier is the fourth to be commissioned