Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 86.6%
Previsori
124
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto19 mag 23, 05:12 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4K €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.