Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.9%
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15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto14 nov 23, 14:24 UTC2 gen 30, 19:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
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PolymarketRegole
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19767/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action.
- This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030??
- [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?