Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
GeopoliticaMonthlyTecnologiaChina3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 61.6%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto26 dic 25, 17:09 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.
- A material restriction includes any of the following:
- Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;
- A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;
- The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 62% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov??
- Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria