Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.3%
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto12 giu 25, 00:25 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these predictions from @tanya_sabrinaaa will come true in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Three prongs:
- 1) China agreeing to AI pause or
- 2) open AI having $3T revenue or
- 3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
- Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
- https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152
Mercati aperti
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 11,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume totale
- 356,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5K €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume totale
- 2,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Three prongs: