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  1. Mercati Predittivi
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  3. Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold Markets

Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?

IATecnologiaYearly6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
Mainstream narrative shift 71.3%
In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori

69

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 giorni fa

Obsoleto
4 apr 25, 18:4131 dic 26, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Mainstream narrative shift71%

Regole

From the famous AI 2027 report:

Manifold Markets
  • https://ai-2027.com/
  • The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
  • Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
  • Feel free to suggest questions.
  • I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)

Mercati Correlati

Manifold Markets

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Sì: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

984,1 €
None in 2026: 69%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

419,3 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

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Sì: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

216,6 €
Sì: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

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Notizie Correlate

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Regole

From the famous AI 2027 report:

Manifold Markets
  • https://ai-2027.com/
  • The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
  • Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
  • Feel free to suggest questions.
  • I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)