Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBacklash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. 96.2%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
48
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 25, 16:07 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2029 AI predications
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
- Resolution criteria:
- If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
- If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
- If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll.
- Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.