Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any country leave the Abraham Accords by EO2026??

Manifold Markets quota No al 86.4% al 5 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will any country leave the Abraham Accords by EO2026??

Will any country leave the Abraham Accords by EO2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

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Previsione della comunità attuale

No 86.4%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 4 ore fa

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11 set 25, 16:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

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Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

Any country that has formally joined the Abraham Accords (by signing the Abraham Accords Declaration or a bilateral normalization agreement under its framework) officially announces it is suspending or terminating participation in the Accords, or officially abrogates/suspends the relevant Israel normalization agreement.
Evidence must be an official government statement or legal act, or confirmation by a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing government officials.
Clarifications: Mere ambassador recalls, critical statements, trade freezes, or flight suspensions without an explicit suspension/termination/withdrawal do not count.
If wording is ambiguous, resolution requires explicit language such as “suspend,” “terminate,” or “withdraw.” New countries that join before EOY 2026 are in scope; their withdrawal before the deadline counts.
The Abraham Accords comprise a general declaration plus bilateral normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (Sept 2020), Morocco (Dec 2020), and a Sudan signature of the Accords Declaration (Jan 2021), though Sudan’s full bilateral normalization has lagged amid instability.