Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeAnthropic 93.6%
Previsori
79
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto6 dic 25, 22:24 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketAnthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
PolymarketRegole
OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.
- Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
- Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
- Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
- If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first??
- Manifold Markets quota Anthropic al 94% al 7 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first??
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.
- Dove altro è quotato Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket, Kalshi.