Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologiaSpace3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.9%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto10 ago 26, 11:01 UTC5 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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ForecastExRegole
Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), either Anthropic's or OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate exceeds the COMBINED annualized revenue run rate of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (Twitter) as of the same date.
- Annualized revenue run rate is defined as the most recent quarter's or month's revenue multiplied out to a full year (quarterly revenue times 4, or monthly revenue times 12), or the most recently reported ARR figure from the company itself or credible reporting, whichever is more current and specific.
- Musk combined total is the sum of Tesla's, SpaceX's, and X's individually computed run rates as described above.
- Sources: official company filings and earnings reports where available (Tesla and SpaceX are both public companies as of 2026 and report quarterly).
- For figures not officially disclosed (Anthropic, OpenAI, X), credible reporting from major financial or technology outlets (Bloomberg, The Information, Reuters, CNBC, or similar) is used, weighting the most recent, most specific, and most corroborated figures most heavily.
- Resolves NO if neither Anthropic's nor OpenAI's run rate exceeds the combined Musk total as of the deadline.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026??
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 5 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), either Anthropic's or OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate exceeds the COMBINED annualized revenue run rate of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (Twitter) as of the same date.