Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (94.6%)
Risolto: 13 ago 2026, 21:03
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 94.6%
Previsori
48
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 giorni fa
Obsoleto22 lug 26, 16:2613 ago 26, 21:03
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
94.6%
5.4%
Regole
This market resolves yes if any Anthropic model is credibly reported to have hacked another entity without being explicitly told to do so in 2026.
- Unsuccessful attempts to do so do not count, Anthropic's model must actually break into the other entity's systems.
- For the purposes of this question, an entity could be a corporation, a non-profit, or a government, or any other similar entity that could come under cyberattack.
- Reporting of such an incident will be considered credible if Anthropic and the entity hacked acknowledge the hack, with Anthropic claiming it was done without explicit instructions.
- If an Anthropic model hacks an entity's systems, while being told to do so by a human, this would NOT count.
- I may wait for corroborating media reports to resolve the market, but the first report of such an incident must happen in 2026 (i.e. if an incident happened in December of 2026, but it wasn't reported on until January of 2027, this would not count).
