Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 72.4%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto12 set 26, 15:14 UTC30 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Resolves according to whether something like the scenario Dario describes here has come to pass, at least through mid-2027, in a way that seems like it has counter-factually decreased AI capabilities at that time relative to if it hadn't happened.
- I expect only Anthropic and OpenAI need to agree to this.
- Still resolves YES if the agreement is not voluntary (e.g. the government imposes this upon the labs)
- Resolves by a poll of Manifold users created within a week of the resolution time.
- The poll will have an "I don't know" option that causes the market to resolve N/A
- https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier#why-pace-