Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72.8%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto12 set 26, 20:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
Manifold MarketsTwo+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves yes if either company takes actions that clearly and intentionally slow down frontier model capability improvement.
- Both Dario and Sam Altman have stated they think this is a good idea.
