Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.2%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo8 giu 25, 09:49 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsAI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketTime's Person of the Decade
KalshiRegole
resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027??
- Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)