Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81%
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto9 dic 25, 16:56 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?
Manifold MarketsBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027:
- https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
- Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks