Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 89.9%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto1 nov 24, 15:44 UTC1 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2030 for the market to resolve YES.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 319,9K €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.3%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.2%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.3%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volume totale
- 217,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 215,2K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.