Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.1%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto28 gen 23, 17:33 UTC31 dic 42, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
- At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation.
- Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
- Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
- there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 69% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2042.
- Come viene liquidato Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.