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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 03:59 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeMojtaba Khamenei 83.3%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
54
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto9 gen 26, 14:14 UTC1 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will be the next paramount leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Paramount leader of the People's Republic of China after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
KalshiLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.