Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
>=2030 69.2%In testa tra 7 esiti
>=2030 69.2%Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 24, 17:57 UTC9 gen 30, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries reach their 2021 levels by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries finally re-reach their 2021 levels?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
