Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 53.7%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto20 nov 25, 09:43 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential), as of the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA/Wood Mackenzie’s “US Solar Market Insight” (YIR or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar capacity was ≥ 470 GWdc, the market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 470 GWdc, the market resolves NO.
Mercati aperti
Adoption
KALSHIWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume totale
- 159,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 130,1 €
POLYMARKETUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume totale
- 52,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 56,6 €
POLYMARKETOver 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume totale
- 18K €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSLinux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.
- Yes57.9%
- No42.1%
- Volume totale
- 1,4K €
- Volume 24h
- —
KALSHIRamp AI Index adoption rate in August
- Above 59%65%
- Above 57%25.8%
- Above 58%9.3%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 21,3 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?
- No88.9%
- Yes11.1%
- Volume totale
- 645,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- Will cryptocurrency and web3 be mainstream by 2032?
- Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?
- Will Brazil adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?
- Will Argentina adopt Bitcoin as an official currency before 2028
- What percentage of new vehicle registrations in Canada will be plug in electric by the end of 2026?
- Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?
- Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?
- Will Germany have 15Mio electric vehicles by 2030?
- Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?
- Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030??
- US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.