Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030??

Manifold Markets quota No al 55.2% al 8 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030??

US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 55.2%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 ore fa

Obsoleto

21 nov 25, 13:10 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 500 GWdc before January 1st 2030.

For the purposes of this market:
“Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” refers to the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed by the end of calendar year 2029.
The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s US Solar Market Insight (Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 500 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
If it clearly states it was < 500 GWdc, this market resolves NO.