Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeQwen 4 (or any Qwen model) 98.3%+3.3ptIn testa tra 26 esiti
Previsori
63
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+48.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
31 ott 26, 23:01 UTC1 dic 26, 00:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of January? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiRegole
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during November 2026 (UTC).
- What counts as a release A model is released on the first day any member of the public in the U.S. can use it through an official channel without an invite: a self-serve API key, the lab’s web or app interface, or a download.
- Paid plans count if anyone can sign up.
- These do not count: waitlists, allowlists, trusted-tester programs, partner-only, enterprise-only or sector-limited access (for example, cyber-defender-only programs), and announcements or benchmark posts on their own.
- Models that are available only in the U.S. (e.g. Claude Fable 5) still count as widely available.
- What counts as a model (scope) Only general-purpose language and multimodal reasoning models count.