KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 89%
Qualità del mercato
74 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,3K €
Liquidità
36,8K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
4 gen 26, 03:00 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the next Millennium problem solved be solved by Chinese AI?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Kalshi quota No al 89% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.