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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. IA
  3. Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

2.0% (24h)IATecnologiaYearly6m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 12%+2.0%
Qualita del mercato

28 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

1,2 €

Liquidità

293 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

7.0% / 11.0%

Spread

57.1%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

4 gen 26, 3:001 gen 27, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes12%

Regole

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

Mercati Correlati

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

5,6K €
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1,9K €
Sì: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

984 €
None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

479,3 €
Sì: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

428,7 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

216,5 €
Sì: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

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Notizie Correlate

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Regole

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.