Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto5 giu 24, 00:50 UTC1 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
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In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.
- Clarifications:
- $100B worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- 135,2K €
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- 102,7K €
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
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- Grok2.8%
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- 325K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per $100B AI training cluster before 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve $100B AI training cluster before 2029??
- $100B AI training cluster before 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato $100B AI training cluster before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.