Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57.5%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mag 25, 17:12 UTC1 gen 00, 18:05 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
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PolymarketRegole
AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a global pause is implemented that includes the largest AI training runs.
- The pause must be based on factors that correlate with the AI systems being more generally powerful or intelligent (for example by limiting the number of parameters or by significantly restricting the hardware that can be acquired to train these systems).
- A "global pause" is a regulation or agreement that includes at least the two leading countries in AI development capabilities at the time it is implemented (or the top labs from these countries).
- Regulations or agreements that are implemented and announced independently but are in effect at the same time would also be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
- Resolves N/A if there is no AGI and no pause before 2200.
