Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mag 25, 17:12 UTC1 gen 00, 18:05 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a global pause is implemented that includes the largest AI training runs.
- The pause must be based on factors that correlate with the AI systems being more generally powerful or intelligent (for example by limiting the number of parameters or by significantly restricting the hardware that can be acquired to train these systems).
- A "global pause" is a regulation or agreement that includes at least the two leading countries in AI development capabilities at the time it is implemented (or the top labs from these countries).
- Regulations or agreements that are implemented and announced independently but are in effect at the same time would also be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
- Resolves N/A if there is no AGI and no pause before 2200.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 69% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI??
- Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2200.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)