Previsione della comunità attuale
No 64%
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22
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 23, 15:29 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.