Previsione della comunità attuale
No 83%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 23, 15:29 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.