Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 67.2%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo10 giu 24, 21:58 UTC1 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 10GW of electricity in ~2028.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 10GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th