In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
ScienzaTecnologia4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 01:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNot demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto7 gen 26, 14:44 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
